On 4th February, 2025 the medical and scientific community of Nalbari Medical College gathered for a compelling presentation by Dr. Jayanta Biswa Sarma, a renowned consultant microbiologist from the UK, titled "Bayes' Theorem - Interpreting Diagnostic Tests." The event attracted a diverse audience, including faculties and residents, eager to deepen their understanding of statistical principles in clinical practice.

Dr. Sarma opened the session by introducing Bayes’ theorem as a foundational concept in probability theory that has profound implications for interpreting diagnostic tests. He explained that this theorem allows clinicians to update their prior beliefs about disease probability based on new evidence—specifically test results.

One of the key highlights was his discussion on Positive Predictive Value (PPV) and Negative Predictive Value (NPV), which are essential for evaluating how well diagnostic tests perform in real-world scenarios. He emphasized that understanding these values through Bayes' theorem allows healthcare providers to make informed decisions about patient care based on both prevalence rates and test accuracy. Dr. Sarma also addressed common misconceptions regarding diagnostics, reinforcing the importance of considering pretest probabilities—how likely it is for an individual patient to have the condition before any testing occurs—and how this affects interpretation outcomes significantly.

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